I'm Back. My General Dynasty Thoughts. 3 Buys Included For Kicks.

Preface: I was writing this after week 12, and since week 13 has yet to wrap up I am not going to reference anything that happened this week.

It has only been almost a year and a half since my great vanishing act from writing about dynasty after taking the pledge to be more consistent. You know just missing an entire draft cycle, and half of the 2022 season. So nothing major to catch up on or anything of the sorts. It was a quiet offseason anyways or so I've been told. Back in 2021 as I was working on the pieces for the prospects I liked I gave the guarantee of being more active on this blog. I may not be as bold as I was before with the claim of being more active as a guarantee, but with that being said!

I am going to try to give a good effort to be more active on here as I wade through the waters of dynasty fantasy football year round. I hope to actually be able to follow through with this, but life is life and that also means that I have other things going on that I may need to tend to. For now, let's get back to the dynasty landscape.

There has been a good amount of coverage on the positional scoring so far this year. For the first time in what feels like ever, wide receivers are actually consistently better and deeper at the top-end than running backs are. Or at least they are so far with seven wide receivers over 20 ppg and only two (almost three) runners in comparison. It is an interesting trend considering fantasy scoring is down across the board this year, but also one that oddly tracks well with the first 10 weeks of last year. This is the detail that is somehow being overlooked is that this isn't some magical shift that happened over the offseason. The most interesting part is that the top-end runners and receivers actually ended pretty neck-and-neck last season, with the lone exception of Cooper Kupp and his receiving triple crown (Derrick Henry pre-injury was keeping pace with Kupp, but injuries ruin everything). So I think it may be a slightly knee-jerk reaction at this rate to call wide receiver a definitively more meaningful position as it is likely that these averages across the two premium positions regress towards each other one way or another as we have seen in the past.

In fact this year is so similar to last year that it is somewhat scary. Maybe this thought spawned from the fact I have had to deal with the 12 targets for 10 PPG Diontae Johnson experience this year, but I was pondering the importance of having good players on good offenses. Something that has been extensively covered every offseason by a number of different people (many the same who break down positional scoring). I had the feeling the difference had somehow been amplified this year. Contrary to my own bias that this year was more stark than others, this year is perfectly in line with last year as well. 7 of the WR1s and WR2s this year are in bad (bottom half DVOA) passing offenses. Last year this number was 6 of 24 by week 10. So the long and short is that we are seeing consistent trends that we can follow. How you want to weaponize this info for your league is entirely up to you, but I think putting general scoring into perspective is important any given year.

What I will say about trends I feel are important is that we should pay attention to the age shift going on in the league right now. I don't have the numbers and would love to pull the exact ones for a different article down the road. The only fact I can present is that the league is getting younger and younger and has been for the past decade or so. Receivers are producing more and more right away, and I think the prioritization of the position and the refinement of talent is something to make note of. I also think we are entering an incredibly awkward transition phase for the league as a whole. Which means that we are entering an incredibly awkward transition phase for many dynasty teams. There are going to be massive ramifications from the 2017 running back class aging out and the changing of the guard at quarterback. I am going to gush on the running backs in a second so for now I want to focus on the quarterback landscape. If Russ, Rodgers, Brady, and Stafford are all truly washed or approaching the washed threshold over the next year or two then we are going to see three to four new names in the QB1 category every year going forward. Not to mention the number of jobs that might open up from the journeymen and veterans on a good number of teams.

The next thought as referenced above is that we really need to appreciate how insane the 2017 running back class is. 2023 is being touted as the next 2017, and the odds they live up to that hype is borderline impossible. Heading into their 6th season this is still the best class of backs in the league across the board right now. So take a moment and enjoy plugging McCaffrey, Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, or one of the countless studs from this class into your lineup. It might be one of the few seasons left you have to enjoy greatness. The end is nigh with many of them approaching the dreaded age 29 (in reality probably 30-31 for some) cliff. So yes, this will likely be the last of many of these players best years. Or the last of even their good ones. What the class has accomplished as a whole can be appreciated for what is going to be a long long time. For fantasy purposes this is the best running back class we have EVER seen. For perspective, there have been eleven(!!!) different RB1s from this class, with a real chance for twelve this year! That is absurd! All hail our kings, don't take this season from them for granted.

The last thing is a personal anecdote here as my sanity slowly slips away more each week from my parasitic relationship with dynasty. Not actually, but I do feel like this season has been an oddly nice reminder for myself. Through the hours of tilt and incessant bitching in our league chat there has been a valuable lesson and humbling reminder of what dynasty is meant to be about. Not having any fun at all and hating your team! Okay fine that is the last joke here I promise, I would be lying through my teeth if I said I didn't take fantasy football seriously. Overly seriously in fact. I live and breath dynasty fantasy football. Fueled by my love of college football, it has consumed every ounce of free time and lead to new passion projects along the way (see: this website among other plans). Learning to walk that fine line of serious and fun is something that is a tough balancing act for me. One that I have also truthfully been failing at for a year plus now. I love the sport by itself. I don't need fantasy to enjoy football, it is a bonus. Which is why it is very much its own entity in terms of how I handled the 24/7 cycle I subjected myself to 5 years ago. Or why it was treated as a bonus at one point. This has been lost in the serious approach I adopted. The fun faded and turned into frustration over luck, points against, and injuries. Things I have zero real control over. Accepting that these things happen sometimes is something I've been learning to handle more and more. I am still not perfect at it and my moments of frustration do boil over every now and then. BUT! As I said before this season I am also reminded at the fact this is just a bonus, and should be treated as such. Not having control over everything in your life is a constant. I won't get up on my soapbox and start preaching philosophy or mindset like some twisted fantasy football enthusiast life coach. I will say that you need to have fun. So make it fun. Do not get lost in the sauce of expecting everything to go perfectly to plan.

Time for some buy candidates!

1. Elijah Moore

Let's admit the truth first, Garrett Wilson is the WR1 for this team. He is objectively good at football too. Moore garnered this same label at one point. That has since been revoked after being forced to play X and run outside routes for the first half of this year. Something he is capable of. Something he is also not entirely meant to do, even if capable. Times like these are where we bet on talent. The Jets have freshly benched Zach Wilson for what seems like good. It doesn't often happen where we can say the backup (can we even call Mike White the backup?) being played is a boost, but here we are. Elijah is also now residing back in his home in the slot. Where he racked up the most yards per game of any receiver ever in college football history! Also where he can be matched up against linebackers with 4.3 speed and good route running! I know he only had 2 targets this week, but both were explosive plays with one going for a touchdown. His teammates also made it known he was "free" now after the game. Which if the trade request and attitude issues are a thing of the past it might bode well for his playing time. I like his odds on being more involved going forward. Especially with G. Wilson getting the CB1 treatment. No Moore (I'm sorry) wannabe Disney channel villain sponsored passing game jail for Elijah Moore. So to sum this up nicely we have a good prospect who produced in the NFL already, who is also athletic, and now playing the role he is best at. It is not time to give up on Elijah yet. Buy.

2. Rachaad White

Unfortunately this might be too late for the buy window. I am still going to include him because the upside is ridiculous. The problem is the window likely slammed shut after the RB1 performance against Cleveland last week. If Leonard Fournette misses extended time then White is a plug and play RB1. Even if Fournette returns then it will be a committee and White may end up with the passing work. Good ole Lenny's role was dwindling before the injury due to a lack of production and efficiency, and with a league's worst running game in need of juice the team might just hand the keys to White eventually. He isn't the best runner and he isn't likely to become the best overnight. The only problem is asking price now especially when factoring in his age. Don't overpay to go get White with such a small sample size. Just know if someone is willing to move him, I'd discuss on the price.

3. Chase Claypool

I wouldn't typically recommend tying yourself to anything Bears related for offensive purposes considering that is about as masochistic as you can get with fantasy football. Sadly for us, there is definitely a case for acquiring Claypool at his price right now. The Bears gave up far too much at the trade deadline to not use him. Hello from 2.02 in the real NFL draft Pittsburgh! Claypool is just a good player. He has never been a world beater in the league, but has been more than a JAG. 800 yards in the Big Ben compulsive checkdown offense is not something to turn a blind eye to. He finally seems to be grabbing a full time role in the offense in Chicago after a few weeks with the team. His snap count and route percentages are both trending upwards. He is an athletic freak with a solid production profile. Mooney is out for some time, and now Claypool has a chance to be the uncontested number one for this offense. It is worth taking a swing on the upside even if the passing volume is not what we are looking for right now.